Resilient Consumer Confidence Indices:

Developing A Resilient Macroeconomic Proxy for Consumer Confidence Resilient to Economic Uncertainty

Research Question:

What drives consumer confidence and how can consumer sentiment then be used to predict consumer behavior, even during times of extreme economic uncertainty due, for example, to world altering events?

Techniques Used:
  • Factor Model and Kalman Filter
  • Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) Process
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis
  • Stein-Thinning
Outcomes:

The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a pivotal indicator of consumer confidence and perception regarding current and future economic conditions.In the correlation analysis between the CSI and the correlation coefficient is 0.65, indicating a moderately positive correlation. The associated p-value is extremely small (3.29 × 10−12), leading to the conclusion that the is statistically significant. Therefore, there is compelling evidence to suggest a meaningful relationship between the CSI and the developed proxy index.

Proxy Project by victoria